INSIGHT by Climate Action Tracker


Despite their promises, governments have not taken enough action to drive down warming projections, with some instead turning to false solutions such as CCS to continue the world’s reliance on fossil fuels, the Climate Action Tracker said as it released its annual warming update at COP28.

In a year where every inhabited continent has experienced record-breaking heat, wildfires, or extreme events, there’s again been no discernible shift in action, despite the agreement in Glasgow in 2021 for governments to strengthen their climate targets.

The CAT warming estimate for government 2030 targets – or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C.  This is not because of any actual target changes, but is largely down to increasing emissions in countries with weak targets, where the CAT takes the current level of policy action for its target calculation.

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The CAT’s other warming estimates all remain the same as 2021. Only one country of those we track enshrined its net zero target into law in the past year.  While governments agreed stronger targets for the international shipping sector, that also had little impact on end of century warming. The current policies pathway or the CAT’s “Policies and action” scenario, remains at the same 2.7˚C that it was in Glasgow two years ago.One of the main drivers of the slight rise in the targets temperature estimate to 2.5˚C  is Indonesia, whose expanding coal power fleet caused emissions to skyrocket by 21 percent last year.


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